PIB forecast using Fourier series based on the IGAE. A comparison with time series analysis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.68061/ggv7bg96Keywords:
absolute error, estimation, IGAE, PIB, Fourier Series, projectionAbstract
The cyclical component is the common term of macroeconomic series, fluctuations can be approached by linear combinations of sinusoidal terms, it means by Fourier series that have been result a right fit for the global indicator of the economic activity (IGAE, for its initials in spanish) compared with certain conventional adjustments by autoregressive and moving average terms argued in this work. The proposed model analysis is easier because its parameters are obteined by least squares. Then, gross domestic product (PIB, for its initial in spanish) is estimated by the IGAE as they are related in the long run. Nevertheless, PIB predictions have not been the best, for this reason it is sugested to consider both approaches and join the outcomes by an average value, the result is favorable as the absolut3 error is significantly less.
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